TOOMAS ALATALU kõne

BREXIT and the Possible Moves on the Eurasian Chessboard

By TOOMAS  ALATALU  PhD

Tallinn, June 28, 2017

 

 

Inspiration from the book of

Zbigniew BRZEZINSKI The Grand Chessboard 1997

 

1997 – crucial year in the European history

– the first decisions about EU and NATO Eastward enlargement

 

In fact after Russia’s own Eastward move March 1996 Kazakhstan + Kyrgyzstan

+ Westward move in April 1996 – Union of Russia and Belarus

(with Patriarch and breaking crystals)

  • The first Russia-Ukraine treaty incl. leasing for Russia military port in Sevastopol for 20 years.

 

Part 1. Balkanization

Brzezinski’s new term:

Eurasian BALKAN = former Soviet Republics = 5 Central Asia + 3 South Caucasus + Afganistan?

 

BALKANIZATION

 

Is a geopolitical term, used to describe the process of fragmentation or division of a region or state into smaller region or states that are often hostile or uncooperative with one another                           wikipedia

 

BREXIT as modern Balkanization

 

Two general scenarios /possibilities:

 

FURTHER Balkanization with remaining totally in Europe:

From EU —————-   Catalonia    Padania

Scotland

Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein, Switzerland + Great Britain

 

FURTHER Balkanization with (some?) subordination to EurASIA

EU’s „Applicants and potential applicants“ – to EU or EURAS or see below

EU’s Eastern Partnership  – to 1. EU  or 2. EURAS  or 3. Non-aligned

 

Applicants : BALKAN      Western Balkan  former YUGOSLAVIA

  • 2004 Slovenia
  • 2013 Croatia

=    Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosova + Albania

 

Western Balkan Summits

2014 Berlin 2015 Vienna 2016 Paris 2017 Trieste

2018 LONDON

 

Theresa May on March 9 confirmed to EU Summit that GB is leaving the EU and that is ready to hold WB6 or BALKAN summit in London in summer 2018.

 

What would the leaving-EU London say to the Balkan countries who even are not invited to accession negotiations – will Madame PM recommend the membership in EU or she will recommend them to stay out of it!?

To become ally, fellow-country of Great Britain without being a member of EU?!

 

GROUP of LONDON has two possibilities more – the first lies in Eurasia.

  1. Eurasian Economic Union 2011/14.

Ukrainian crisis started from it. Or the Kremlin started to play chess

The Crimea and project Novorossiya … Transnistria

Armenia became member.

Free trade agreement with Serbia. + International rescue base in Nish

Moskovian President of Moldova

+ Latin American ties (CELAC, BRICS)

 

  1. Non-aligned promoted state status. The foreseenable lies in South Caucasus.

NAM or Non-aligned movement since 1961 Belgrad. 120 countries.

Summits …. Last three from OIL-GAS to OIL-GAS to OIL-GAS country

Impossible to underestimate!

2012 Teheran  IRAN      2016 Porlamar VENEZUELA

 

2019 Baku AZERBAIDZAN (+chairmanship 2019-22)   2x Summit in Europe

European Games 2015 Formula 1 2016-

It seems that the best positioning for Baku could be to be alone, i.e. without moving closer neither to EU nor to EURASIA.

(Brzezinski predicted to Azerbaidjan the role of PIVOT)

Geopolitically „Great Britain“ in Near Orient“

 

 

Part.Two. About situation in the Western Balkan. The second possible non-aligned state.

 

On May 13 the Committee of Regions of the European Union adopted an opinion about „EU Enlargement strategy“ about the possibilities of the Western Balkan countries and Turkey to go on with preparations concerning joining the EU in the future.

As known, the current leaders of the EU had declared already in 2015 that during their mandate, i.e. until 2019 no enlargement will take place. This statement complicated the general approach to solving the existing problems aggravated by the fact that the Balkan countries differ significantly.

Unhappily it was the EU itself, which – under the name of the Badinter Commission – declared openly about it and even proclaimed a waiting line for obtaining of independence which immediately was broken by Balkan nations. The European Commission announcement about non-enlargement was a new disappointment for more advanced countries, as the less advanced countries governments interest declined significantly. At the same time Russia immediately increased its anti-EU and anti-NATO activities in Balkan.

 

I’m stating it as composer of this abovementioned paper of the Committee of Regions, who during six months had permanent contacts with representatives of all six countries. Happily the EU leaders themselves also understood the necessity to be at least time to time present in the Balkan countries, to contact with the leaders and people after a long period not doing it. They disclosed that meanwhile Russia had succeeded in promoting its interests, including in propaganda of neutrality in foreign policy and establishing links with the Eurasian institutions.

What will be the final result of the LONDON summit it’s not clear today. It is also not clear why Berlin and Paris so easily accepted the desire of Mme May and what are plans of the Kremlin!?

 

Maybe also some Balkan country now under immense foreign pressure would decide to take some kind of non-aligned country status? BELGRAD 2

 

 

Part Three. Small game Brexits inside BREXIT. With help of the Kremlin.

 

As we don’t know today results of the general assembly which just concluded its work in the building of the Scottish parliament in EDINBURGH. It took place since Monday till today, Wednesday June 28. 2017?

We all know the position of Scotland’s government and parliament concerning remaining of this part of the UK in the EU.

The GA which took place was the Unrepresented Nations and People’s organisation one. And as Scottish MP liberal WILLIE RENNIE is active member of UNPO its 13th GA was held there.

 

Let’s me conclude my report with a short excursion to history

As Estonian and historian I’m proud to say that the UNPO was set up in Estonia in September 1990 and two its its general assemblies, the 5th and the 6th took place in Tallinn, respectiverly in 1997 and 2001. The latter in the SAME ROOM.

Also the celebrations of UNPO 5th, 10th and 15th anniversaries.

 

The founders of the UNPO were representatives (in fact scientists who had turned to be politicians) of national movements of Estonia, Tibet, Crimean Tatars, Georgia and Tatarstan. The respective ceremony took place in our university city Tartu on 5 September 1990.

 

It was anticipated by the elections and convoking of the Congress of Estonia in February-March 1990, which was considered by its c creators as an anti-parliament to the existing Supreme Council. In April 1990 Tartu was visited by Lodi Gyari, Foreign Minister of the Tibetian government in exile, who was surprised by the success of nationalists in setting up parallel forms of the state power in conditions where Estonia was still a part of the USSR. Supposedly during that meeting Mr. Linnart Mäll, Estonian historian and politician, the first SG of the UNPO and Mr. Gyari agreed to create an organization to support the struggle of the peoples of the occupied territories, who were seeking their independence.

 

On the 5 September 1990 meeting Tibet was represented by Dr. Michael C. van Walt van Praag from the Netherland, the first President of the UNPO who acted as legal advisor to the Tibetian government in exile (he had accompanied Mr. Gyari in his trip in April). The representatives of the Eastern TURKESTAN (invited by Mr. Mäll) and East TIMOR (invited by van Walt) did not arrive to Tartu. The meeting was attended also by a representative of ARMENIA, but he refused to sign the protocol of intentions.

 

The history of the Unrepresented NPO is possible divide into two stages – until 1997 and after that. During the first period it had two working languages – English and Russian.

Let’s me explain what happened here in Tallinn in 1997 during the 5th congress in such way – instead of Estonian the representative of Zanzibar island was elected, instead of Chechen at first the representative of Udmurts was selected and then he was defeated by representative of Scania or South Sweden.

All the personnel of Russian Embassy here in Tallinn was then present in these rooms and as majority delegates came from Asia and Africa they were the winners of elections carried out by democratically established rules. After 2001 the Russian language disappeared as the official working language of the UNPO.

 

 

It’s truth that Russian policymakers with a help of their special structures succeeded in defeating the – its not correct to say anti-Russian, its better to name it as against Russia’s interest – segment in the UNPO leadership and supposedly it took place on the Estonian soil during these two conferences what I had mentioned above.

But it is important to add that in changed and new circumstances the Kremlin was enough wise to revive a little the UNPO to put it serve hers own interests.

The excellent proof of it was visible in last year when one of main non-political acitivities of the UNPO – the football tournament of the ConIFA = Confederation of Independent Football Associations, who are not memebrs of the FIFA –

was held in Sukhumi, capital of Abkhazia which was separated from Georgia in 2008 after the invasion of Russian troops.

As known the so called independence of Abhazia was recognised only by Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Nauru, but since 1991 Abkhazia had been a member of the UNPO. In 2001 in situation of isolation also representatives of the UNPO were invited to observe the presidential elections in Abhazia and since that event the UNPO’s partner in Abkhazia is its Foreign Ministry. The highest level for UNPO!

 

The first tournament of Cup of ConIFA, held in Gävle, in Sweden was attended also by a team of ELLAN VANNIN of the Isle of MAN.

On the eve of the cup tournament, in May last year United Kingdom’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office officially recommended not to travel to Abkhazia and the football team of Isle of Man obeyed.

The place of the third championship of the ConIFA in 2018 is not announced yet, but among pretenders is the South Ossetia. So taking it into account as the fresh news from the Scottish parliament building, it is clear that the game is going on. Including on the level of football. Be careful, the after-Brexit United Kingdom!